Market Update 31 July 2008

Market update 31 July 2008

The US Dollar remained little changed and in very tight ranges ahead of what is a grand finale to the week with US GDP on Thursday and NFP on Friday. The latter data may have far reaching implications as the Fed will be closely watching in order to gauge the likelihood of rate hikes later this year. Trading was restrained in the EUR/USD pair as most sat on the sidelines ahead of the aforementioned data releases. The range was a slow 20 pips with a high near 1.5589 and a low near 1.5569. No amount of creative writing on my behalf can spice up the lack of movement in this pair over the past 10 hours...With most Euro Zone data gloomy at best; it seems that negative economic sentiment records are being toppled at least weekly. EUR/JPY hit a 168.56 high and looks real comfortable just below the 170.00 figure.

USD/JPY was lower this session, hitting a low near 107.95 as Japanese Industrial production fell short of expectations. It would seem by all indications that the Japanese economy is slowing. We've seen a high of 108.33 and a low of 107.70 within the past 24 hours, thus reaffirming the cautious market.

Down under, Australian Retail Sales was yet another disappointing number added to the list, but yet the Aussie Dollar hardly reacted. AUD/USD hit a low of .9411 before bouncing back to levels near 0.9450. The fear in Australia is that with the economy slowing there are rumblings that the RBA could follow the lead of the RBNZ and cut interest rates.

Keep in mind that the US economic data dominates the landscape for the rest of the week, but as soon as the NFP number is released talk will begin about next weeks ECB rate decision, which will be the topic of conversation for the FX markets until it happens.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):

7/31	5:45	SZ	CPI (MoM)	JUL	0.20%	-0.40%
7/31	5:45	SZ	CPI (YoY)	JUL	2.90%	3.00%
7/31	6:00	UK	Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM)	JUL	-0.90%	-1.20%
7/31	6:00	UK	Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY)	JUL	-6.30%	-7.30%
7/31	6:00	GE	ILO Unemployment Rate	JUN	7.40%	7.40%
7/31	7:55	GE	Unemployment Change (000's)	JUL	-38K	-20K
7/31	7:55	GE	Unemployment Rate (s.a)	JUL	7.80%	7.80%

USD/CHF 30 July 2008

USD/CHF Today trade setup :
Open sell stop at 1.0440
TP1 = Pivot = 1.0415
TP2 = S1 = 1.0355
SL = 1.0475
TS = 35 Points

Good Luck

Result
All Open orders hit SL
Total Profit / Loss = -70

GBP/USD 30 July 2008

Trade setup today for GBP/USD
Open Buy Stop at 1.9835
TP1 = R1= 1.9920
TP2 = R2 = 2.0045
SL = 1.9795
TS = 40 points

Good Luck

Result
All open orders hit SL
Total Profit / Loss = -80

Market Update 29 July 2008

The markets seemed calm this session after US equities basically had a meltdown due to the continued decline of financials. With more write-downs and a few major US banks looking fragile, the Dollar was sold aggressively in the NY session, however, at least against the Euro, the Buck held its ground in Asia. The tug of war with unstable US financials on one side and lower oil and weak data in Europe on the other has seemed to have been called a draw, at least for now. EUR/USD failed to move in any profound direction, instead staying in a choppy range between 1.5752 and 1.5736 all session. With spotty data, a stalling economy and many traders on holiday don't expect any record highs in the pair barring a major event. Later in London German CPI will be the data that may be the proverbial spark in the powder keg to bust EUR/USD out of the tight range.

In the far East, the Yen didn't do much on the back of a bunch of data releases, some good, some not so good...With the jobless rate rising to a two year high, retail sales higher and household spending falling short, the USD/JPY pair was confused at best. The pair started the session near the 107.50 level and ended up near 107.40 by London's open, with not much action in between. Many traders are looking ahead to the US NFP on Friday as a guide to the Dollars direction.

Despite increased losses from several native banks, the AUD/USD was higher albeit only slightly. The word is that local exporters were pushing the market higher from the 0.9570 open until 0.9580 as of this writing. AUD/NZD headed higher as well, touching over 1.2865 for a session high.

GBP/USD was tame all day, and the less than 20 pip range mirrored the tone of the FX markets overall. The pair has fallen from its NY highs of 1.9964 to 1.9940 as of this writing. The UK will have Money Supply and Mortgage approval data later in London.

Expect this type of range-bound trading ahead of some major US numbers in the USA, NFP on Friday, and GDP on Thursday.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):

7/29	6:40	FR	Consumer Confidence Indicator	JUL	-46	-47
7/29	6:45	FR	Producer Prices (MoM)	JUN	1.30%	0.80%
7/29	6:45	FR	Producer Prices (YoY)	JUN	6.70%	7.30%
7/29	6:45	FR	Housing Starts 3M YOY% Change	JUN	-21.60%	- -
7/29	6:45	FR	Housing Permits 3M YoY% Change	JUN	-19.90%	- -
7/29	8:00	SZ	UBS Consumption Indicator	JUN	1.91	- -
7/29	8:30	UK	M4 Money Supply (YoY)	JUN F	11.50%	- -
7/29	8:30	UK	M4 Sterling Lending (BP)	JUN F	45.9B	- -
7/29	8:30	UK	Net Consumer Credit	JUN	1.4B	1.0B
7/29	8:30	UK	Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings	JUN	4.1B	3.7B
7/29	8:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	JUN	42K	37K

GBP/USD 29 July 2008

Today Trade setup :
Open buy stop order at 1.9950
TP1 = R1 = 1.9990
TP2 = R2 = 2.0040
SL = 19910
TS = 40 points

GBP/USD predicted to continue the yesterday trend to moving north, so we decided to set the order as written above.

Good Luck

Result today :
TP1 Hit SL = -40
TP2 Hit SL = -40
Total Profit / Loss = -80

GBP/USD 28 July 2008

It seem GPB/USD will going much deeper today as this pair failed to break 1.9980/70 level on Friday (25 July 2008).
Now today trade setup :
Put Sell Stop Order at 1.9868
TP1 = S1 = 1.9831
TP2 = S2 = 1.9762
SL = 1.9908
TS = 40 Points

Result :
TP1 = -40
TP2 = -40

Total Profit / Loss = -80

Market Update 28 July 2008

The Trade week started off in Asia in a subdued fashion as the US Dollar quietly crept above 108.00 to register a one month high versus the Yen. With the view that perhaps the gloom and doom in the US economy has subsided a bit, the USD/JPY pair opened near 107.80 and eventually poked its head above 108.00 to reach a high near 108.06. The move didn't last too long and was reversed immediately as the pair sunk to levels below the open by the sessions end. 107.75 looked like the low as of this writing. It is well noted that Japanese exporters are heavy on the offer above the 108.00 figure. EUR/JPY was up for the session after an 169.35ish open, a 169.70 high, and a curtain call of 169.45 as of this writing.

With stocks looking to be in favor, many have jumped back on the carry trade band-wagon, selling the Yen and buying higher yielding currencies, thus the pair hovering near the record 170.00 level. The Nikkei followed the US equity lead last week as it came back to life after being trampled underfoot for weeks on end.

EUR/USD looked for direction and eventually found it as the pair traded as low as 1.5685 and motored through 1.5725 as the session wound down. Tonight represented a subtle start for the Euro after last weeks high of 1.5945 and low of 1.5628, but with second quarter GDP on Thursday, and US Non Farm Payrolls on Friday, this week could see some very big moves.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session) :

7/28

6:10

GE

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

AUG

3.9

3.5

NFA News

For Immediate Release

For More Information Contact:
Ruth Hong (312) 781-1371, rhong@nfa.futures.org

NFA expels South Florida firm, American Atlantic Financial Corp. and its principal; sanctions its associated persons

July 25, Chicago - National Futures Association (NFA) has permanently barred American Atlantic Financial Corp. (American Atlantic) and its principal, John Menoutis from NFA membership. American Atlantic is an Introducing Broker located in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. In addition, American Atlantic and Menoutis must each pay a fine of $100,000. American Atlantic's associated persons (APs), David S. Godnick, Tephny Petit Jeune, Richard J. Montece, Thaddeus H. Nathaniel and Nathaniel Walker, were also sanctioned with fines ranging from $5,000 to $20,000, suspensions from NFA membership and tape recording requirements. The Decision, issued by an NFA Hearing Panel, is based on a Complaint filed in April 2007.

The Panel found that American Atlantic and its APs made misleading and high-pressured sales solicitations which cited dramatic profits that were implied to be likely and easily obtainable without disclosing that most of American Atlantic's customers lost money. The Panel also found that American Atlantic and Menoutis failed to diligently supervise their APs sales tactics. According to the Panel, Menoutis' supervisory failings were "compounded by his cavalier attitude towards his regulatory responsibilities and American Atlantic's customers."

According to the Panel, American Atlantic, Menoutis, and its APs had two main goals: "maximize commissions and prevent customers from filing complaints" and that they "pursued both goals with a complete disdain for their customers' best interests."

The Panel described American Atlantic, Menoutis and the respondent APs as representing "the worst in this industry-a firm and a collection of individuals who have eschewed the opportunity to operate honestly and, instead, have chosen to learn how to misrepresent the products they are selling."

American Atlantic, Menoutis, Godnick, Jeune, Montece, Nathaniel and Walker may appeal the Panel's Decision to NFA's Appeals Committee.

NFA is the premier independent provider of innovative and efficient regulatory programs that safeguard the integrity of the derivatives markets.

GBP/USD 25 July 2008

It seem GBPUSD will have correction today after deeply down yesterday. So we prefer to open long trade.
Today Trade Setup :
Open buy stop at 1.9873
TP = R1 = 1.9955
SL = 1.9833
Ts = 40 Points

Watch out for GBP news release at 9.30gmt - Prelim GDP q/q
Close your position before news release or protect your profit using Trailing Stop.

Gudluck

What a lucky day, open buy hit TP
Result today = +82

Total weekly = -80+0+30-35+82 = -3

Market Update 25 July 2008

Asia Session

Published: July 25, 2008 1:18 AM

The final Asia Session of the week brought a follow-through from US equity markets, reiterating the importance of understanding inter-market relationships. Based upon the common denominator of risk, the FX arena has started to reiterate the correlation between assets deemed ''risky'', such as stocks and the Carry Trade. Today, the Japanese Yen displayed exemplary strength, pressuring the pairs associated with the Carry Trade, as stocks took a pummeling in New York trading.

The new day opened on a tepid note, but roughly two hours into trading, USDJPY began to roll over from the 107.50 zone. Instead of providing life to EURUSD and GBPUSD, the pair dragged down the crosses. EURJPY dove from 168.50 to 167.65, hitting levels unseen in a week. The one-dimensional market theme overshadowed any life beyond the Japanese Yen. EURUSD held a tight 30 pip range just south of 1.5700. Cable flipped on either side of 1.9850.

London traders will close out their week with the release of UK GDP at 0830 GMT (0430 EDT). These data points have sparked substantial volatility this week, so market players should certainly keep the numbers on their radar. Also noteworthy is the stabilizing price of Crude oil futures, now sitting at $126/barrel. The round numbers of $120 (support) and $130 (resistance) are the levels to watch.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session)

0600 GMT Germany – June Import Price Index, consensus: +1.0% MoM, +8.4% YoY (relevance: low)

0800 GMT EuroZone – June Money Supply (M3), consensus; +10.3% YoY (relevance: low)

0830 GMT UK – Q2 GDP, consensus: +0.2% QoQ, +1.6% YoY (relevance: high)

EUR/USD 24 July 2008 - 2

2nd set up for EUR/USD as seen in my chart :
Open Sell Stop at 1.5638
TP = 1.5598
SL = 1.5673

Good Luck.

Well, unlucky today, hit sell stop order at 17.30 gmt and the price was going up and hit the SL.
Result : - 35

EUR/USD 24 July 2008

Today we look at EUR/USD, we have a chance to open short position as the indicators told us that this currency still in down trend mode. When we look two previous days, this currency pair is heading to south and today we won't let this momentum go away. But be careful of news will release at 9.00gmt - German Ifo Business Climate Index.

Today trade set up :
Open Sell Stop at 1.5670
TP1 = S1 = 1.5640
TP2 = S2 = 1.5595
SL = 1.5705
TS = 35 Points

Good luck

Here the result :
TP1 hit = +30
Tp2 = 0
Total Profit / Loss = +30

GBP/USD 23 July 2008

An opportunity we've got at GBP/USD, as an impact by CAD retail sales which released down to 0.4% than 0.8% forecast, USD was boost last night over 150 point against all majors. Today it seem the short term in GBP/USD still continue, but be careful with news will release at 9.30gmt - GBP MPC minute meeting which forecast unchanged than the previous report.

Today Trade Setup :
Open Sell Stop at 1.9895
TP1 = S1 = 1.9855
TP2 = S2 = 1.9790
SL = 1.9945
TS = 35 points

Good Luck

Result Today :
No hit on Sell Stop Order & cancel all orders at 16.00 gmt.
No Trade today.

GPB/USD 22 July 2008

Today Setup Trade :
We look at GPB/USD, there is an opportunity to open buy at 2.0045, as my indicator show the long trend in this pair currencies. But, be careful there is a news at 9.45 gmt - BOE Governor King Speaks. Close out your position before news release or protect your profit using Trailing Stop.

Here is the setup :
Open Buy Stop at 2.0045
TP 1 = R1 = 2.0075
TP 2 = R2 = 2.0120
SL = 2.0015
TS = 35 points.

Good luck

Well, here is the result.
TP1 = hit = +30
TP2 = not hit, SL hit = -30
Total Profit / Loss = 0

Market News

Forex Focus July 21st to 25th.

Has the euro run out of steam?

Check our economic calendar for a full run-down of the economic releases and events for this week.

Last week saw the dollar fall to fresh lows against the euro before steadying against a background of falling oil prices, better than expected news out of the US financial sector and speculation that the Fed may raise rates as early as October (text with charts and forecast continues below video).

The text continues:

The week opened with the euroth-25th, which suggest that a US rate increase could happen sooner than many suspect. This news saw euro-dollar make a serious assault on our forecast support as it fell to 1.58. (chart 1) losing some of the gains it had made the previous week after the US government unveiled plans to put a firewall round mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The markets were initially steadied by the news and the euro fell close our forecast support of 1.5820. However, as Monday continued fears for the broader US financial sector grew and the euro picked up to cross the key 1.59 level. The euro rise continued into Tuesday and despite weaker than expected ZEW numbers out of both Germany and the Euro-zone, it went on to hit a new all-time of 1.6038. However, it failed to maintain momentum and after Ben Bernanke had outlined the numerous difficulties facing the US economy, the price of oil took a dive and the euro fell after retesting 1.60, a level it did not return to for the rest of the week. The dollar got more support when the biggest bank on the US West coast, Wells Fargo, announced better quarterly results than expected. Wednesday also saw US inflation numbers (CPI) come in higher than expected and the release of the minutes for the FOMC meeting for June 24
The euro struggled to find direction on Thursday as it was buffeted on all sides. It rose when the Financial Times revealed that sovereign wealth funds were cutting their dollar holdings but it halted after a smattering of contentious US data and the news of better than expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase. It wasn’t all good news for the US financial sector however, and Merrill Lynch waited until after the close of the US session to announce bigger than expected losses and an asset sale to raise $8bn. This news makes Merrill one of the biggest casualties of the current financial turmoil with losses of $19bn over the last four quarters. Friday saw Citigroup join Wells Fargo and JP Morgan by announcing better than expected quarterly results and after testing our forecast support once more euro/dollar closed the week at 1.5848.

Chart 1 EUR 14th-18th July
Sterling (chart 2) started the week by testing our forecast support before moving on to rise steadily against the greenback. Higher than expected inflation surveys (CPI and RPI) pushed the pound to a four-month high of 2.0153 which tested our forecast resistance. Sterling spent the rest of the week trading in a gentle down channel and closed the week at 1.9981.
Chart 2 GBP 14th to 18th July
Calendar
Here are the highlights of this week’s economic calendar. You can find an extensive list of the week’s economic releases and events in our economic calendar.
This week sees the release of important US housing data with Existing Home sales on Thursday and New Home Sales on Friday. You should also check the Richmond Manufacturing Index on Tuesday and further insight into the US manufacturing base can be gleaned from Durable Goods Orders on Friday. The widely respected University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will release its revised numbers on Friday and is always worthy of note. US Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, will be speaking in New York on Tuesday about the economy and financial markets and what he says could have an influence on trading.
Thursday is the big day for the euro-zone, with the release of German Ifo data and the European Purchasing Managers numbers (PMI).
UK economic activity can be gauged with Thursday’s Retail Sales figures and Friday’s preliminary GDP numbers. The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, will be testifying to Parliament about banking reform on Tuesday. Wednesday sees the release of the release of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting’s minutes for July 10th when they decided to hold rates at 5.00%.

Chart 3 Important Calendar Events
Forecast
Although last week saw dollar sentiment rise as oil prices fell, EUR still traded in a 1.60 – 1.58 range. We see EUR/USD finding support at 1.5710 and resistance at 1.6040.
GBP/USD should find support at 1.9805 and resistance at 2.0160.

JPY/USD should encounter support at 106.00 and test resistance at 108.50.