Trade Signal February 20, 2009

Update at 10:40 GMT

GBP/USD
Buy at 1.4272
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 Pips
SL = 1.4252
TS 50 points

EUR/USD
Buy at 1.2620
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.2580
TS 50 points

USD/CHF
Sell at 1.1850
TP1= 80 pips
TP2= 50 pips
SL = 1.1890
TS 50 points

Update at 08:06 GMT

GBP/USD
Sell at 1.4270
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 Pips
SL = 1.4320
TS 50 points

EUR/USD
Sell at 1.2605
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.2645
TS 50 points

USD/CHF
Buy at 1.1695
TP1= 80 pips
TP2= 50 pips
SL = 1.1655
TS 50 points

FOREX-Dollar gains, euro wobbles on East European fears

Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:04pm GMT

* Dollar hits 2-1/2 month high versus euro

* Moody's, S&P warn of deterioration in eastern Europe

* Dollar Index nears 3-month high on safe-haven flows (Recasts, adds comments, updates prices)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The dollar gained broadly on Tuesday, hitting a 10-week high against the euro after warnings from two ratings agencies sparked fear that a deep recession in Eastern Europe would cause further damage to euro zone banks.

The yen fell after data showed Japan's economy shrank in the fourth quarter at its fastest clip in 35 years and the finance minister resigned, putting pressure on the government.

The main focus, though, was on the euro, which fell below $1.26 to its lowest level since early December after Moody's Investors Service threatened to downgrade euro zone banks with significant exposure to weakening economies in Eastern Europe.

Standard & Poor's also said it may review emerging Europe bank ratings now that the credit crisis has limited western European banks' ability to fund subsidiaries in the region.

"That's pretty negative for the European economic outlook and certainly implies that the (European Central Bank) has more work to do," said Robert Blake, senior currency strategist at State Street Global Markets in Boston.

"It's a pretty significant story that's not going away and may only get worse. That's certainly a negative for the euro."

The euro was last down 1.4 percent at $1.2595 after earlier falling as low as $1.2564, its lowest level since Dec. 4. It fell 0.8 percent to 116.21 yen .

The dollar rose 0.8 percent to 92.44 yen , not far from a a one-month peak at 92.75 hit earlier. The ICE futures' dollar index, which gauges the greenback's against six major currencies, rose 1.3 percent to 87.667 .DXY after earlier hitting 87.821, its best showing since November.

The yen normally rises in times of risk aversion, too, as investors seek low but steady returns, but it struggled against the dollar on Tuesday after a report showed Japan shank in the fourth quarter at its fastest rate since 1974.

Worries about Japan and Europe "will keep risk aversion high," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "There's nothing out there that suggests a change in sentiment."

That leaves the dollar as just about the only short-term alternative, analysts said. Steep stock declines on Wall Street and in Europe further fed dollar gains as investors sought the relative safety of dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. government bonds, which rallied broadly.

U.S. economic data also painted a grim picture, with the New York Federal Reserve reporting its manufacturing activity index plunged to a record low this month.

But a separate Treasury Department report was more encouraging, as it showed foreigners bought a net $34.8 billion in long-term U.S. securities in December, reversing outflows seen the prior month.

The data eased worries that foreign investors, especially China, are backing away from U.S. assets.

"Foreign demand returned to U.S. securities in December, supported by ongoing safe-haven buying of dollar-denominated deposits," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at The Bank of New York-Mellon in New York.

(Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou and Vivianne Rodrigues; Editing by Diane Craft)

© Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.

Trade Signal February 17, 2009

Update at 12:12 GMT

GBP/USD
Sell at 1.4230
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 Pips
SL = 1.4280
TS 50 points

EUR/USD
Sell at 1.2602
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.2642
TS 50 points

USD/CHF
Buy at 1.1715
TP1= 80 pips
TP2= 50 pips
SL = 1.1675
TS 50 points

Trade Signal February 16, 2009

Update at 11:37 GMT

GBP/USD
Sell at 1.4220
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.4270
TS 50 points

EUR/USD
Sell at 1.2755
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.2795
TS 50 points

USD/CHF
Buy at 1.1705
TP1 = 80 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.665
TS 50 points


Trade Signal February 11, 2009

Update at 7:27 GMT

GBP/USD
Buy at 1.4440
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.1390
TS = 50 pips

EUR/USD
Buy at 1.2940
TP1 = 100 pips
TP2 = 50 pips
SL = 1.2890
TS = 50 pips

USD/CHF
Sell at 1.1550
TP1 = 80 pips
TP2 = 50pips
SL = 1.1600
TS = 50 pips


FOREX-Dollar, yen gain; US bank plan fails to inspire

* US dollar, yen gain after US bank plan, Bernanke

* U.S. Treasury unveils revamped financial rescue package

(Recasts, updates prices)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar and yen gained on Tuesday as investors took shelter in both currencies amid concerns Washington's bank rescue plan may not be enough to revive the ailing financial sector.

Markets had pinned their hopes on the package, aimed at helping banks offload "toxic assets" and boost capital, but the intial reaction was lower stock prices, higher bond prices and a stronger dollar and yen, as investors looked for a safe haven.

The dollar extended gains against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's prepared testimony to the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee failed to mention buying of U.S. Treasuries by the U.S. central bank.

"Bernanke hasn't said anything yet that is new," said Meg Browne, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "The options to buy Treasuries remain open, but he didn't mention it. The forex market is jumping a bit on this."

Late afternoon in New York, the euro was 1.0 percent lower against the dollar at $1.2877 , and 2.3 percent against the yen to 116.28 yen .

The dollar fell 1.3 percent against the yen to 90.30 though off a session low of 90.14.

Instead, Bernanke said the Fed believes an array of extraordinary programs aimed at stabilizing credit and banking have improved market conditions and eased strains despite a drumbeat of negative economic news, but that there was no quick fix.

"Although the provision of ample liquidity by the central bank to financial institutions is a time-tested approach to reducing financial strains, it is no panacea," Bernanke said.

Bernanke's "comment that the ample liquidity from the Fed is no panacea shows that obviously despite the Fed dumping billions of dollars of liquidity into the system, it's not going to be a quick fix," said Matt Esteve, foreign exchange trader at Tempus Consulting in Washington. "That's really what has turned sentiment south a little bit here"

The low-yielding dollar and yen are typically viewed as safe-haven currencies with low volatility. When stocks drop and the risk barometer climbs, investors repatriate funds and close out risky trades funded by these two currencies.

BAND-AID APPROACH

Earlier the U.S. Treasury Department unveiled a revamped financial rescue plan to cleanse up to $500 billion in spoiled assets from banks' books and support $1 trillion in new lending through an expanded Federal Reserve program.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday said in prepared remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the Treasury was exploring a range of structures for a public/private investment fund that could eventually soak up $1 trillion of distressed assets from American financial institutions.

"We do not see convincing evidence that the government is moving away from its Band-aid approach to helping banks," said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments in Palo Alto, California.

"By now, the only viable solution left may be to nationalize the financial institutions that are deemed too big to fail; it's then a political decision whether depositors should carry part of the cost."

Merk took issue with the $1 trillion in consumer and business lending, saying that getting involved in specific credit allocation is best left to planned economies.

"When governments start picking industries and companies to subsidize, inefficiencies are created, leading to higher costs, lower competitiveness and ultimately a loss of jobs," he said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday said in prepared remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the Treasury was exploring a range of structures for a public/private investment fund that could eventually soak up $1 trillion of distressed assets from American financial institutions.

Investors also took little comfort in a U.S. Senate vote that passed an $838 billion economic rescue plan on Tuesday, while also setting the stage for tough negotiations over the final size and scope of spending and tax cuts aimed at reversing the deep recession.

With scant Republican support, the Democratic-controlled Senate voted 61-37 to approve the package, which differs significantly from the $819 billion measure the House of Representatives passed almost two weeks ago.

The dollar was sharply higher against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The aussie was down 4.4 percent against the U.S. currency , while the kiwi fell 3.8 percent . (Additional reporting by Vivianne Rodrigues and WanFeng Zhou) (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss)

FOREX-Dollar falls vs euro on housing data, stock gains

Tue Feb 3, 2009 4:45pm GMT

* Dollar falls vs euro after jump in housing data

* Euro zone PPI down 1.3 pct, German retail sales fall

* Bank of Japan announces stimulus plan

* Aussie dollar higher after RBA cuts rates 100 bps

(Recasts, adds comments, updates prices)

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the euro on Tuesday after an unexpected jump in U.S. pending home sales in December, easing demand for the greenback as a haven.

But gains in the euro were limited as many in the market stayed sidelined before the European Central Bank's rate decision on Thursday when it is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold at 2 percent.

An announcement by the Bank of Japan of a plan to buy up to 1 trillion yen ($11 billion) in listed shares held by Japanese banks also helped boost sentiment earlier, but its impact may be limited, analysts said.

The housing report "is a real shot in the arm for (risk) sentiment," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com, in Bedminster, New Jersey. "Stocks are rallying."

In late morning trading in New York, the euro was up 1 percent against the dollar at $1.2979, after trading as high as $1.2997 earlier.

The dollar was 0.3 percent lower at 89.14 yen .

Pending sales of existing U.S. home rebounded in December as buyers took advantage of lower prices and mortgage interest rates. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index surged 6.3 percent in December.

U.S. stock indexes got a lift and the dollar fell also as the U.S. Federal Reserve said it extended liquidity facilities and currency swap lines with 13 central banks to keep money flowing into the banking system.

"Euro/dollar has been trading on the back of risk aversion and sentiment in the past couple of days. Any news that brings risk aversion lower and helps lift stocks at this point will hurt the dollar," said Matt Esteve, a foreign exchange trader at Tempus Consulting in Washington, D.C.

Esteve said the euro could trade as high as $1.3250 in coming weeks.

WEAK EUROPEAN DATA

In Europe, pressure will remain on the ECB to cut interest rates further in the coming months as data again pointed to waning inflationary pressures and a weakening economy.

Figures on Tuesday showed euro zone producer prices fell a bigger-than-expected 1.3 percent, while German retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third straight month in December.

The prospect of rates staying on hold, however, is helping to limit the euro's downside, analysts said.

"With limited developments ... the euro, which is slightly oversold, is likely to drift higher," Marc Chandler, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, said in a note.

The Bank of Japan share-buying plan and a deep interest rate cut in Australia also briefly helped sentiment. But lingering concerns also remain about the fiscal health of economies on the fringes of the euro zone.

Ireland announced that talks with trade unions collapsed on proposed budget cuts that would be necessary to prevent a downgrade to its sovereign ratings, though it still hopes to maintain its credit rating.

The Australian dollar posted solid gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 100 basis points to a record low 3.25 percent and the Australian government announced stimulus measures.

The Australian dollar rose by 2.8 percent against its U.S. counterpart to $0.6491 .

(Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson in New York; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

© Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.

Trade Signal February 03, 2009

Update at 13:32 GMT

EUR/USD
Sell at 1.2840
TP = 1.2760
SL = 1.2880
TS = 50 points

USD/CHF
Buy at 1.1605
TP = 1.1665
SL = 1.1565
TS = 50 points

Trade Signal February 02, 2009

Update at 9:05 GMT

EUR/USD
Buy at 1.2765
TP1 = 1.2865
TP2 = 1.2815
SL = 1.2715
TS = 50 pips

GBP/USD
Buy at 1.4290
TP1 = 1.4390
TP2 = 1.4340
SL = 1.4240
TS = 50 pips

USD/CHF
Sell at 1.1625
TP1 = 1.1545
TP2 = 1.1575
SL = 1.1675
TS = 50 pips