Release Explanation: The value of Sales at the Retail level. A very important set of figures that make up a large percentage of consumer spending numbers. Serviced based economies rely on the strength of the consumer to keep things moving along, this therefore impacts PCE and CPI, the Inflationary reports. A currency will be impacted by this report over time as it reveals the strength of the public in their ability, or desire, to spend.
Trade Desk Thoughts: Core retail sales grew 0.4%, just below the 0.5% expected and the June number was revised up t 0.9% from 0.8%. The import price index, based partly on oil, was up 1.7% for July, well above the 1.0% expected while June's number was revised up to 2.9% from 2.6%. In a worrying sign of inflation, import prices swelled 21.6% for the year, the highest in the history of the series, but even excluding oil prices rose 8.0% for the year, the highest in 20 years, as prices of goods from China were up 5.3% for the year. Auto sales were the big drag on the headline number, falling 2.4% for the month and over 10% for the year. The report also indicates that consumers used their tax rebates for more than just gasoline; furniture sales were up 1.0% and sales at electronics stores were up 0.8%.
Forex Technical Reaction: There wasn't a strong reaction to the numbers as oil is trading about 0.7% higher on the day. Traders are also looking at earnings from John Deere, which fell short of analysts' expectations. S&P futures are currently down 7.25 points (0.65%).
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